Balneario Sao Jose Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let's get into it. It’s a bit of a mixed bag on the horizon, but there are a couple of windows that are going to make it all worth it.

Things kick off quietly. The first day or so, we're looking at small, weak surf. There's just not enough energy in the water to get excited about. The first real pulse of swell rolls in for the weekend. Saturday morning is where it's at early on. We've got a clean 5ft of south swell at Balneario Sao Jose, with a 10-second period and glassy conditions. That's a great way to start the weekend. The combined energy is moderate at 401, and the water temp is 69°F, which is about average for this time of year. The glassy conditions are a huge plus. The swell direction is from the south, which is a little off the optimum southeast direction for this spot, but the clean conditions will make it fun. Saturday afternoon drops off a bit, and Sunday gets messy with onshore winds and rain.

After that, we see a run of poor conditions. Monday through Wednesday has onshore winds and rain, with the swell jumping up to 7ft on Monday morning. There's a ton of energy in the water – strong to very strong, with values hitting 1881 – but the wind is going to chop it all up. For a beach/pier setup like this, it's going to be a washing machine. This is more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers. The wind and rain stick around, and while the size stays around 5ft to 6ft, the quality is poor.

Now, we get to the heart of it. The standout run is Thursday, the 13th, through Friday, the 14th. Thursday morning is glassy with a clean 4ft of south-southeast swell. It’s a good, clean wave. But Friday, the 14th, is the one to circle on the calendar. The swell builds a touch, to 5ft, but the period jumps to 14 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and the energy is solid at 902. The morning has a light cross-offshore wind, which will groom it perfectly. The afternoon looks glassy and clean too. This is the pick of the bunch – a long-period south-southeast swell at a break that wants southeast. It’s going to have some push and shape to it. The swell is a bit much for beginners, but for the intermediate surfer, it’s going to be firing.

The weekend after that fades out, with the surf dropping back under 3ft. Then we see another push for the middle of the following week. The swell is back up over 6ft by the 17th, but the period is short, around 7-8 seconds, which is just not as good. The wind is also messy.

The final standout is further out, on Thursday, the 21st. It's a long-range call, so keep your expectations in check, but the models are showing a solid 7ft of south swell with a 12-second period, and it's glassy in the morning. That's a powerful, clean swell. It’s not for the faint of heart though – that size is getting into expert territory. The combined energy is strong at 1208. If that holds, it’ll be a proper session for the experienced crew. The Saturday after that also looks like a decent cleanup with clean 5ft waves.

So, to sum it up: the best bets are Friday, the 14th, and that long-range Thursday, the 21st. Get on it.

Rusty.

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