Nanwan Beach (South Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's break down what’s happening at Nanwan Beach (South Bay).

The forecast starts with a big event, but it's not really what we'd call good. The water temp is about 86°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

We're looking at Friday morning, July 10th. There's a huge amount of energy in the water – we're talking a combined swell energy of 10370. That's massive. The swell is 15 feet from the east with a very long period of 16 seconds. It's a powerful groundswell, but it's simply too big for this spot. The wind is a cross-offshore from the northwest at 18 mph, which would be ideal if the waves were a sensible height. It carries on into the afternoon with a 16-foot swell from the east, still enormous, with a light westerly breeze. You have to pass on it because of the sheer size.

The next several days are a total loss for paddle surfing. From Saturday, July 11th, right through until around the 22nd, the conditions are consistently awful. We're seeing storm-force winds, nasty cross-shore and onshore breezes, and a lot of rain and thunderstorms. The swell drops, but the quality is just terrible – choppy, lumpy, and blown out. For example, Saturday the 11th has gale-force winds at 46 mph. This stretch is a total blank run of no good surf.

There are a couple of days in the second week that might get you thinking, but you need to be cautious. On Thursday morning, July 23rd, the swell jumps to 10 feet from the SSW with a long 12-second period. Energy is at 2726. A gentle cross-onshore breeze might make it rideable, but it’s a marginal call. Then on Friday, July 24th, the swell goes absolutely massive again – 20 feet from the SSW with a 13-second period and an energy reading of 12318. The wind is moderate cross-shore, but it's just way too big for Nanwan. That's strictly an expert-only situation.

The one window that might offer something for the average surfer comes on Saturday afternoon, July 25th. The swell drops to 8 feet from the SSW with an 11-second period, and the wind turns cross-offshore from the west at 15 mph. Combined energy is 1767. It's still on the bigger side, but for an intermediate surfer, it might be the cleanest and most manageable option in the entire 16-day window.

Overall, this is a tough forecast. Don't even bother until late July unless you're a pro and those big days line up perfectly. The most realistic, decent surf will be that Saturday afternoon on the 25th.

Rusty.

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