Nanwan Beach (South Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here again, giving you the same lowdown in feet and miles per hour, because that’s how some of us measure it.

The only game in town is Nanwan Beach (South Bay). It’s a beach and reef setup, pretty consistent, but we’ve got a wild ride ahead.

Water temp is a balmy 85°, just about average for the season, so no surprises there.

Right off the bat, it’s ugly. We’ve got a big groundswell pumping in – 12 feet from the SW, with strong to very strong wave energy (1621 is the reading). The problem is a howling 31 mph wind from the WSW, creating a cross-off mess. The report calls it “poor surf conditions.” Zero rating. Sunday through Tuesday morning is just a repeat: big, powerful, but choppy and ugly. The wind stays in the 19-31 mph range with a lot of cross-shore cleaning. If you’re a surfer, stay on the beach. The kite surfers will be having a field day.

Things calm down a bit starting Wednesday the 12th. The swell drops to about 7 feet from the SW (energy down to 752), and the wind eases to a cross-off 16-19 mph from the west. The water clears up, but it’s still called “marginal.” Thursday and Friday the 13th and 14th are more of the same: 7-foot SW swell, cross-off wind, but still poor or marginal. The wave period is a short 9 seconds, so the waves will be close together and a bit weak.

But hold on. Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are the real deal. On the 16th, we’ve got a 7-foot SW swell (energy 800), and the wind swings to a light 9 mph from the NW – nice and clean cross-off. Then on the 17th, the wind drops to 6 mph from the WNW. The report says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the best we’ve got. For a beach and reef break, a clean 7-foot SW swell with moderate energy and light wind is prime. The waves will have some punch. Just watch for the crowds – it says “often,” so you won’t be alone. Get there early.

The second week goes downhill. Swell drops to 4 to 5 feet from the 19th to the 21st, but the wind swings to a nasty 22-28 mph from the NE and ENE. It might look clean on paper, but the scores are zero. It’s all wind and no shape. That’s a solid three-day gap with nothing to ride.

Then, there’s a late shot on Sunday the 23rd of August. The swell comes back to 7 feet from the SW, the wind goes light from the NE at 9 mph (cross-off), and the energy jumps to 959. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions” again. It’s over a week out, so keep your fingers crossed, but it looks promising. Then Monday the 24th slides back to a 6-foot swell with a stronger 22 mph westerly wind, bringing it back to marginal.

So here’s the takeaway: Sunday the 16th and Sunday the 23rd of August are the days you want. Clean 7-foot SW swell, light offshore or cross-off wind, moderate energy. The rest of the 16-day window is either too big and windy, or too small and windy. It’s a waiting game, but those two windows are worth waiting for.

Rusty.

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