Nanwan Beach (South Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, lookin’ at the surf ahead for Nanwan Beach (South Bay). It’s a bit of a mixed bag this run, with a whole lot of nothin’ up front, then a big pulse of swell that’s gonna be way too much for this spot, and maybe a little window of something decent right at the end if you’re an experienced local.

The first few days are pretty dead. Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd? Don’t even bother. We’re talkin’ ankle to knee-high dribble, with a 7-second period that’s got no energy behind it. The combined energy is barely a whisper at 30 (minuscule). The water is a warm 85°, which is about normal for this time of year. Early on the 2nd, there’s a tiny bump of East swell at 18 seconds, but it’s only 1 ft and the energy is still low at 113 (weak). It’s just not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 3rd starts to show a pulse. The morning is a write-off with 12 mph cross-shore wind, but Monday afternoon, the wind swings offshore from the North at 6 mph, and we get a 3 ft East swell at a long 16 seconds. The energy climbs to 486 (moderate). That’s a clean, long-period groundswell, but it’s still small. The conditions are clean, but it’s not a stand-out – just a sign of life.

The real swell builds from Tuesday the 4th. By Wednesday the 5th morning, we’re seeing 6 ft of East swell at 18 seconds, with a cross-offshore wind from the WNW at 12 mph. The combined energy is pumping at 2299 (strong). That’s a proper, clean swell, but it’s already getting big for beginners. The direction is East, but this break’s optimum is SE, so it’s a bit of a mismatch.

And then it just goes nuts. From Saturday the 8th, the swell becomes enormous. We’re talkin’ 13 ft on the 8th, then 23 ft on Sunday the 9th, with a period of 12 seconds. The energy readings are off the charts – 3069 and 13739 (very strong). This is way, way too big for Nanwan Beach. The wind is howling from the WNW at 28-31 mph, creating a clean but terrifyingly huge mess. Only absolute experts with a death wish should even look at this. The swell is too big – it’s pure survival, not surfing.

The run continues with 13 ft to 20 ft swells through to the 12th. The energy is still in the thousands (very strong). The wind is still strong, too. It’s a no-go zone for paddle surfing; this setup is lookin’ more interesting for kite surfing than a traditional paddle session.

Finally, towards the end of the run, it starts to ease. Thursday the 13th afternoon, the swell drops to 10 ft from the SW at 10 seconds, with a gentle 9 mph WNW cross-offshore wind. The energy is still high at 1983 (strong), but the report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the one to circle. The swell is over 8 ft, so it’s expert-only, but the wind is light and offshore, making it clean. This is a promising, but less certain, late call.

Friday the 14th is also a possibility, with 10 ft SW swell and light 6 mph WNW winds. The energy is 1325 (strong). It’s still big, but very clean.

After that, the swell fades fast. By the 16th, it’s back to 6 ft to 6 ft, but the conditions are poor, so it’s not worth a mention.

So, the best on offer is that window on Thursday the 13th afternoon and Friday the 14th. It’s big, powerful, and clean. If you’re an experienced surfer, that’s your moment. For everyone else, this is a long stretch of waiting.

Rusty.

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