Nanwan Beach (South Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's have a look at what's cookin' for the South Bay region over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a mixed bag and you'll need to pick your moments here. The water temp is sitting around 85°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Right out of the gate, we've got a bit of a dud. Tuesday the 11th kicks off with some solid 8ft swell from the SW and a period of 9 seconds, but a fresh 16 mph WSW crosswind is gonna chop it all up. The energy's moderate (931) but the conditions are pretty poor. That theme carries right through to the end of the week – plenty of SW swell between 7ft and 8ft, but that Westerly wind just won't let up, often blowing 19 mph. It's mostly onshore or cross-off, but it's just too strong to make for a clean session. The risk of thunderstorms is a constant companion too. This stretch is pretty much a write-off for a decent paddle.

Things start looking a bit more interesting as we head into the following week, but it’s a slow build. By Monday the 17th, the wind finally drops to a light 6 mph WNW breeze which feels like a miracle after the gales. The swell drops to about 6ft, still from the SW with a 9-second period, and the energy drops back (450). It'll be clean with those light cross-off winds, and while it's not pumping, it's a whole lot better than what we've had. The morning and afternoon both look surfable in a "good conditions" kind of way.

Now, circle Tuesday the 25th on your calendar. That's your standout. The wind finally swings to a light offshore from the NNW at just 9 mph and the swell bumps back up to 7ft from the SSW with a longer 11-second period. The energy jumps to a solid 968, and with that gentle offshore flow, it should be clean as a whistle. This is the one genuine window in the whole forecast where everything comes together – "very good surf conditions." It’s an intermediate-friendly spot, so the 7ft swell is a good size to handle, and with that period, the waves should have some proper shape. Just keep in mind it can get crowded here, so you might have some company.

Before that, there’s a rough patch. From Thursday the 20th through Monday the 24th, a stiff NE wind (up to 28 mph) rips across a smaller 4ft to 5ft SSW swell. The energy is there, but the wind just makes it a mess for surfing, although that combo might actually be a bit more interesting for the kite crew than for a paddle surfer.

The very end of the run on the 26th shows a massive spike in energy (3549) with a 7ft swell from the East and a super-long 15-second period, but the wind is a howling onshore southerly. That much period on a beach and reef setup would be tough to manage even with good wind, and with that southerly screaming, it's just not an option.

So, to sum it up: most of the next two weeks are a battle with wind. Your only real 'go' day is the 17th if you're desperate, but the absolute standout winner is Tuesday the 25th. Get on it.

- Rusty

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